Derby County vs Sunderland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.1%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.6%
2-0
4.8%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
7%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.7%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7.6%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
44.8%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
0-1
11.1%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
22.9%
0-2
8%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
13.4%
0-3
3.9%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.8%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 2003 |
DER
3 - 2
WAT
42%
26%
32%
|
58 | 64 | 6 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2003 |
WAL
0 - 1
DER
59%
22%
18%
|
57 | 63 | 6 | +1 |
| 30 Aug. 2003 |
DER
0 - 1
WBA
37%
28%
35%
|
57 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2003 |
CAR
4 - 1
DER
57%
23%
20%
|
58 | 63 | 5 | -1 |
| 23 Aug. 2003 |
DER
2 - 3
REA
37%
27%
37%
|
59 | 70 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Sunderland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 2003 |
STO
3 - 1
SUN
28%
27%
45%
|
73 | 62 | 11 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 2003 |
SUN
2 - 1
CRY
47%
26%
27%
|
73 | 69 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2003 |
BRA
0 - 4
SUN
32%
26%
42%
|
72 | 59 | 13 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2003 |
SUN
2 - 0
WAT
56%
25%
19%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Aug. 2003 |
PNE
0 - 2
SUN
44%
26%
31%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | +1 |