Derby County vs Sunderland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.1%
Win probability
2.45
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.7%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.5%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
18.2%
17.7%
Win probability
1.24
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.8%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 1933 |
BIR
3 - 1
DER
47%
23%
29%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1933 |
DER
2 - 2
WBA
65%
18%
17%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1933 |
SHW
0 - 0
DER
67%
17%
16%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1932 |
DER
5 - 1
LEE
68%
18%
15%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
| 27 Dec. 1932 |
BPO
4 - 1
DER
44%
22%
34%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | -1 |
Matches
Sunderland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb. 1933 |
SUN
1 - 1
BPO
68%
16%
16%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 1933 |
EVE
6 - 1
SUN
70%
16%
14%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 1933 |
SUN
3 - 2
ARS
46%
22%
31%
|
81 | 89 | 8 | 0 |
| 02 Jan. 1933 |
SUN
2 - 2
WBA
62%
19%
19%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1932 |
MAC
2 - 4
SUN
63%
19%
18%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | +1 |