Derby County vs Sunderland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.9%
Win probability
2.46
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.3%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.2%
3-0
7%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.3%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.4%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
17.6%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.6%
15.4%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.8%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 1930 |
SHE
3 - 3
DER
60%
19%
21%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1930 |
SUN
1 - 3
DER
61%
19%
19%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
| 06 Sep. 1930 |
DER
0 - 0
BIR
70%
17%
13%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1930 |
DER
4 - 1
LEE
69%
17%
14%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1930 |
LEI
1 - 1
DER
66%
18%
16%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Sunderland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Sep. 1930 |
SUN
1 - 4
ARS
61%
19%
19%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1930 |
SUN
1 - 3
DER
61%
19%
19%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1930 |
OPA
1 - 1
SUN
49%
24%
28%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1930 |
SHE
3 - 3
SUN
63%
19%
19%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 1930 |
SUN
3 - 3
MAC
61%
19%
20%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |