Derby County vs Sunderland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.6%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.4%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.8%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.8%
20.6%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 1929 |
BCF
3 - 3
DER
51%
22%
27%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1929 |
DER
1 - 2
NEW
66%
19%
16%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | -1 |
| 20 Apr. 1929 |
WHU
2 - 2
DER
57%
21%
23%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1929 |
DER
2 - 5
LIV
64%
19%
17%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1929 |
LEE
1 - 1
DER
50%
23%
28%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Sunderland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 1929 |
SHE
4 - 0
SUN
59%
20%
21%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1929 |
SUN
4 - 1
WHU
66%
18%
16%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1929 |
LIV
5 - 2
SUN
58%
21%
21%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 1929 |
SUN
2 - 1
LEE
69%
17%
14%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1929 |
MUD
3 - 0
SUN
40%
24%
36%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |