Derby County vs Sunderland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.1%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.2%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.8%
2-0
4.9%
3-1
3.5%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.6%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.3%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
42.5%
Win probability
1.59
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
9%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.1%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
4.7%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.8%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1.9%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.8%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.1%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Dec. 1919 |
WBA
3 - 0
DER
66%
20%
15%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1919 |
ARS
1 - 0
DER
48%
24%
28%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | -1 |
| 25 Dec. 1919 |
DER
2 - 1
ARS
62%
20%
18%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | +1 |
| 20 Dec. 1919 |
DER
0 - 4
WBA
44%
26%
30%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | -1 |
| 13 Dec. 1919 |
DER
0 - 0
BBU
41%
25%
34%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Sunderland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1920 |
SUN
4 - 1
WBA
59%
21%
19%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1919 |
MAC
1 - 0
SUN
45%
23%
32%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1919 |
WBA
4 - 0
SUN
44%
24%
32%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1919 |
LIV
3 - 2
SUN
41%
23%
36%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 1919 |
SUN
2 - 1
MAC
68%
18%
14%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |