Derby County vs Sunderland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.5%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.4%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.3%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.4%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
31.6%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.6%
0-2
4.5%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 1913 |
MUD
4 - 0
DER
67%
19%
14%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1913 |
DER
1 - 0
NOT
75%
15%
11%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 Jan. 1913 |
MID
4 - 1
DER
58%
21%
21%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
| 18 Jan. 1913 |
DER
5 - 0
TOT
72%
16%
12%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | +1 |
| 01 Jan. 1913 |
SHW
3 - 3
DER
69%
18%
12%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Sunderland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb. 1913 |
SUN
4 - 2
SWI
91%
7%
3%
|
84 | 63 | 21 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1913 |
MID
0 - 2
SUN
42%
24%
33%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 1913 |
SUN
4 - 0
CHL
84%
10%
6%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 1913 |
TOT
1 - 2
SUN
36%
24%
41%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 1913 |
SUN
1 - 1
OLD
71%
17%
12%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |