Derby County vs Sunderland analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.4%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.3%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.1%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.1%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.1%
24%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24%
32.6%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.7%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.4%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar. 1907 |
PNE
1 - 0
DER
72%
17%
12%
|
75 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1907 |
DER
2 - 3
BBU
54%
23%
23%
|
75 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1907 |
WBA
2 - 0
DER
69%
17%
14%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | -1 |
| 16 Feb. 1907 |
DER
2 - 1
STO
60%
21%
19%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 1907 |
MID
4 - 1
DER
66%
19%
16%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Sunderland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Mar. 1907 |
BBU
2 - 1
SUN
56%
21%
23%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Mar. 1907 |
SUN
3 - 1
STO
76%
15%
10%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1907 |
SUN
0 - 1
SHW
58%
21%
21%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1907 |
SHW
0 - 0
SUN
68%
17%
15%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 1907 |
SUN
1 - 2
BOL
54%
22%
24%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |