Derby County vs Stoke City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.3%
Win probability
2.51
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.5%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.6%
3-0
7.2%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.7%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.7%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.2%
14.5%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.4%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 1938 |
GRI
1 - 1
DER
54%
21%
25%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 1938 |
ARS
1 - 2
DER
62%
19%
18%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | +1 |
| 10 Sep. 1938 |
DER
1 - 0
SUN
58%
20%
23%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 1938 |
HUR
3 - 0
DER
46%
23%
30%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1938 |
ASV
0 - 1
DER
53%
22%
26%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Stoke City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep. 1938 |
STO
1 - 1
MUD
61%
20%
19%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1938 |
BIR
1 - 2
STO
56%
23%
22%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | +1 |
| 05 Sep. 1938 |
STO
1 - 1
LEE
53%
22%
25%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1938 |
STO
1 - 3
MID
49%
22%
29%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | -1 |
| 29 Aug. 1938 |
CHA
4 - 2
STO
56%
23%
21%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |