Derby County vs Stoke City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.4%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.2%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.4%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.4%
3-0
7%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.4%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.5%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.6%
17.4%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.4%
15.2%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.7%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1936 |
CHL
1 - 1
DER
53%
22%
25%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1936 |
DER
1 - 3
OPA
66%
18%
16%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 17 Oct. 1936 |
MAC
3 - 2
DER
56%
21%
23%
|
84 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1936 |
BOL
1 - 3
DER
51%
22%
27%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 1936 |
DER
2 - 3
BRE
65%
18%
17%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Stoke City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct. 1936 |
STO
3 - 0
MUD
58%
21%
21%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Oct. 1936 |
SHW
0 - 0
STO
58%
21%
21%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1936 |
STO
0 - 2
PNE
54%
23%
23%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1936 |
OPA
1 - 0
STO
56%
21%
22%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | -1 |
| 03 Oct. 1936 |
STO
2 - 2
MAC
52%
22%
26%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |