EFL Cup 1/32
Global 6-0
Derby County vs Southend United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
84.2%
Win probability
2.87
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
1%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.2%
6-0
2.5%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3.1%
5-0
5.2%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.8%
4-0
9.1%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
12.5%
3-0
12.7%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
18.7%
2-0
13.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.1%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.1%
11%
Draw
0-0
3.2%
1-1
5.2%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
11%
4.8%
Win probability
0.57
Expected goals
0-1
1.8%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
3.8%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep. 1997 |
DER
4 - 0
SOU
55%
23%
23%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Sep. 1997 |
SHW
2 - 5
DER
61%
22%
17%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | +1 |
| 20 Sep. 1997 |
ASV
2 - 1
DER
63%
23%
14%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 1997 |
SOU
0 - 1
DER
24%
27%
50%
|
74 | 50 | 24 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1997 |
DER
3 - 1
EVE
44%
25%
31%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Southend United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep. 1997 |
SOU
1 - 0
FUL
44%
27%
29%
|
50 | 55 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 1997 |
SOU
0 - 1
DER
24%
27%
50%
|
50 | 74 | 24 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1997 |
MIL
3 - 1
SOU
44%
27%
29%
|
51 | 51 | 0 | -1 |
| 05 Sep. 1997 |
SOU
3 - 1
BRE
42%
27%
31%
|
50 | 55 | 5 | +1 |
| 02 Sep. 1997 |
WYC
4 - 1
SOU
50%
26%
24%
|
51 | 55 | 4 | -1 |