Derby County vs Southampton analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
67.3%
Win probability
2.3
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
4.4%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.1%
2-0
10%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
18.3%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.3%
14.4%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
4.1%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.6%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 1978 |
DER
3 - 2
WBA
54%
23%
23%
|
84 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1978 |
BOL
2 - 1
DER
43%
27%
30%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 1978 |
DER
0 - 2
COV
58%
22%
20%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | -1 |
| 26 Aug. 1978 |
BIR
1 - 1
DER
57%
22%
20%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 1978 |
EVE
2 - 1
DER
65%
20%
15%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 1978 |
BRI
3 - 1
SOU
53%
24%
24%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 1978 |
SOU
3 - 2
WOL
51%
24%
25%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 1978 |
ASV
1 - 1
SOU
69%
18%
13%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 1978 |
SOU
2 - 1
MID
48%
25%
26%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 1978 |
SOU
2 - 2
BOL
58%
23%
19%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |