Derby County vs Southampton analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.9%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.1%
4-0
5%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.2%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.8%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.9%
12.1%
Win probability
0.82
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
8.5%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 1973 |
COV
1 - 0
DER
36%
30%
35%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 Sep. 1973 |
BUR
1 - 1
DER
43%
28%
29%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 1973 |
DER
3 - 1
LIV
47%
28%
26%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1973 |
DER
2 - 1
EVE
69%
19%
12%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1973 |
LIV
2 - 0
DER
64%
22%
14%
|
88 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Southampton
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 1973 |
SOU
1 - 2
LEE
22%
28%
50%
|
83 | 92 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 1973 |
NOR
2 - 0
SOU
41%
27%
32%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1973 |
COV
2 - 0
SOU
47%
26%
27%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1973 |
SOU
2 - 2
NOR
65%
21%
14%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1973 |
SOU
2 - 1
WOL
36%
27%
37%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |