Derby County vs Shrewsbury Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58%
Win probability
1.98
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.7%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
10%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.6%
20.4%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
12.9%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug. 2011 |
DER
2 - 1
BIR
22%
25%
52%
|
61 | 81 | 20 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2011 |
DER
3 - 0
ASV
17%
22%
61%
|
62 | 87 | 25 | -1 |
| 07 May. 2011 |
REA
2 - 1
DER
76%
16%
8%
|
62 | 79 | 17 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2011 |
DER
0 - 2
BRI
49%
25%
27%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | -1 |
| 25 Apr. 2011 |
NOR
3 - 2
DER
71%
18%
11%
|
63 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Shrewsbury Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Aug. 2011 |
STF
1 - 1
PLY
56%
25%
19%
|
59 | 53 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2011 |
STF
0 - 0
GUL
36%
26%
39%
|
59 | 61 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2011 |
GUL
2 - 0
STF
40%
26%
34%
|
60 | 60 | 0 | -1 |
| 07 May. 2011 |
STF
3 - 0
OXF
49%
27%
24%
|
59 | 56 | 3 | +1 |
| 30 Apr. 2011 |
CHE
0 - 1
STF
28%
26%
46%
|
59 | 47 | 12 | 0 |