Derby County vs Salford City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.8%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.2%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.5%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
22%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug. 2021 |
DER
1 - 1
HUR
44%
27%
30%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2021 |
NOT
0 - 2
DER
23%
23%
54%
|
64 | 53 | 11 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2021 |
DER
1 - 0
BET
10%
21%
69%
|
64 | 87 | 23 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2021 |
SAL
2 - 1
DER
33%
25%
42%
|
64 | 60 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2021 |
DER
1 - 2
MUD
3%
15%
82%
|
64 | 91 | 27 | 0 |
Matches
Salford City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug. 2021 |
SAL
1 - 1
LEY
59%
24%
17%
|
60 | 53 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2021 |
SAL
0 - 2
LIN
32%
25%
43%
|
60 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2021 |
CUR
0 - 1
SAL
11%
20%
68%
|
60 | 34 | 26 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2021 |
SAL
2 - 1
DER
33%
25%
42%
|
60 | 64 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2021 |
ATH
0 - 3
SAL
12%
21%
68%
|
59 | 34 | 25 | +1 |