Derby County vs Reading analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
40.4%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.6%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.8%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.2%
27.4%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
12.9%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.4%
32.2%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
0-1
10%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.3%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
8.9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
-3
3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec. 2005 |
CRY
2 - 0
DER
57%
24%
19%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2005 |
DER
1 - 1
LUT
50%
24%
26%
|
68 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2005 |
CAR
0 - 0
DER
48%
26%
26%
|
68 | 69 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2005 |
DER
1 - 1
PNE
45%
25%
30%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2005 |
DER
2 - 0
NOR
45%
25%
30%
|
67 | 72 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Reading
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec. 2005 |
REA
2 - 0
LEI
59%
24%
18%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2005 |
WOL
0 - 2
REA
46%
27%
27%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2005 |
MIL
0 - 2
REA
29%
30%
42%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2005 |
REA
5 - 1
BHA
71%
20%
10%
|
78 | 60 | 18 | 0 |
| 03 Dec. 2005 |
REA
3 - 0
LUT
54%
25%
22%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |