Derby County vs Portsmouth analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.6%
Win probability
2.79
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.1%
5-0
2.9%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.7%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
9.3%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.2%
2-0
8%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
3.1%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.3%
15.1%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
15.1%
12.2%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
3.4%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jan. 1928 |
BOL
1 - 3
DER
65%
19%
16%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Dec. 1927 |
WHU
2 - 2
DER
62%
19%
19%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1927 |
ASV
0 - 1
DER
64%
19%
18%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1927 |
DER
5 - 0
ASV
56%
20%
25%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
| 24 Dec. 1927 |
DER
4 - 1
BIR
62%
19%
20%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Portsmouth
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jan. 1928 |
SHE
3 - 1
OPA
73%
15%
12%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1927 |
OPA
1 - 0
BCF
43%
23%
34%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1927 |
BCF
4 - 0
OPA
71%
16%
14%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Dec. 1927 |
OPA
2 - 1
HUR
35%
24%
42%
|
72 | 86 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 1927 |
NEW
1 - 3
OPA
71%
16%
13%
|
70 | 85 | 15 | +2 |