Derby County vs Notts County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.5%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.7%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.6%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.4%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.8%
17.7%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.9%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+20%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 1919 |
BOL
3 - 0
DER
64%
20%
17%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1919 |
DER
1 - 2
BOL
52%
23%
26%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
| 24 Sep. 1919 |
NEW
0 - 0
DER
57%
23%
21%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Sep. 1919 |
BRA
3 - 1
DER
55%
23%
22%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Sep. 1919 |
DER
3 - 0
BRA
59%
23%
18%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Notts County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Oct. 1919 |
NOT
4 - 1
MAC
50%
26%
24%
|
77 | 82 | 5 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1919 |
NOT
2 - 2
SHE
42%
27%
32%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Sep. 1919 |
MAC
4 - 1
NOT
64%
21%
15%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | -1 |
| 20 Sep. 1919 |
NOT
3 - 1
SHW
49%
25%
26%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | +1 |
| 13 Sep. 1919 |
SHW
0 - 0
NOT
70%
17%
12%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |