Derby County vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.1%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.4%
4-0
5.5%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.8%
3-0
9.4%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.5%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.3%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
17.1%
Draw
0-0
4.4%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.1%
10.8%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
7.8%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.4%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Mar. 1976 |
LEE
1 - 1
DER
54%
24%
22%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1976 |
DER
1 - 1
LIV
58%
24%
18%
|
89 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1976 |
MUD
1 - 1
DER
44%
27%
30%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 1976 |
WHU
1 - 2
DER
45%
26%
29%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | +1 |
| 18 Feb. 1976 |
DER
2 - 0
ARS
70%
18%
12%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar. 1976 |
NEW
0 - 1
STO
60%
22%
18%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1976 |
MAC
2 - 1
NEW
68%
17%
15%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 1976 |
BOL
1 - 2
NEW
39%
26%
35%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Feb. 1976 |
LIV
2 - 0
NEW
68%
19%
13%
|
85 | 90 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 1976 |
BOL
0 - 0
NEW
39%
26%
36%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |