Derby County vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.2%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.1%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.9%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.1%
2-0
10.9%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.9%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.8%
15.1%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.2%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 1975 |
DER
1 - 5
QPR
66%
20%
15%
|
88 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 1975 |
COV
1 - 1
DER
39%
27%
34%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 1975 |
SHE
1 - 1
DER
47%
26%
28%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | -1 |
| 09 Aug. 1975 |
DER
2 - 0
WHU
75%
15%
11%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1975 |
DER
0 - 0
CUM
79%
14%
7%
|
89 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 1975 |
NEW
3 - 0
LEI
58%
23%
19%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 1975 |
NEW
1 - 1
MID
55%
24%
21%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 1975 |
IPS
0 - 3
NEW
64%
20%
16%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1975 |
NEW
1 - 2
BIR
59%
23%
19%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | -1 |
| 23 Apr. 1975 |
NEW
3 - 1
ARS
46%
26%
28%
|
85 | 87 | 2 | 0 |