Derby County vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.8%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.8%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.4%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.9%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.1%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
2.4%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.2%
24.8%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
0-1
3.6%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
13.8%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Apr. 1952 |
DER
1 - 0
OPA
54%
21%
25%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1952 |
WBA
1 - 0
DER
48%
23%
29%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1952 |
OPA
3 - 1
DER
66%
18%
16%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | -1 |
| 05 Apr. 1952 |
DER
3 - 1
MID
65%
18%
17%
|
79 | 77 | 2 | +1 |
| 22 Mar. 1952 |
DER
1 - 3
CHA
65%
18%
17%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr. 1952 |
ARS
1 - 1
NEW
68%
17%
15%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 1952 |
MID
2 - 1
NEW
46%
22%
32%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | -1 |
| 12 Apr. 1952 |
NEW
1 - 0
MAC
73%
16%
12%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 1952 |
NEW
0 - 2
MID
71%
16%
13%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 1952 |
NEW
1 - 3
BPO
67%
18%
15%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |