Derby County vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65.9%
Win probability
2.34
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.7%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.8%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
18.4%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.4%
15.7%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
10.2%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Apr. 1949 |
MID
1 - 0
DER
41%
23%
36%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 1949 |
DER
2 - 0
MAC
66%
18%
15%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 1949 |
OPA
1 - 0
DER
56%
21%
23%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 1949 |
DER
3 - 2
EVE
67%
18%
15%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 1949 |
PNE
0 - 0
DER
50%
22%
28%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 1949 |
NEW
0 - 5
OPA
51%
23%
26%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1949 |
NEW
3 - 1
BPO
54%
22%
25%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
| 26 Mar. 1949 |
HUR
0 - 2
NEW
42%
26%
32%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 1949 |
NEW
3 - 2
ARS
47%
25%
28%
|
79 | 86 | 7 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 1949 |
WOL
3 - 0
NEW
72%
16%
12%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | 0 |