Derby County vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
71%
Win probability
2.54
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.5%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.9%
4-0
5.1%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.2%
3-0
8%
4-1
5%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.5%
2-0
9.5%
3-1
7.9%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.4%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.7%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
16.4%
12.6%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
2.9%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8.4%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.1%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr. 1930 |
SHW
6 - 3
DER
61%
20%
19%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1930 |
DER
4 - 1
SHW
58%
20%
22%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1930 |
GRI
2 - 1
DER
44%
23%
33%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1930 |
DER
2 - 2
LEI
65%
19%
17%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1930 |
BIR
2 - 4
DER
47%
25%
28%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr. 1930 |
LIV
0 - 0
NEW
59%
21%
20%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1930 |
NEW
2 - 1
LEE
58%
20%
21%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1930 |
NEW
3 - 1
LIV
55%
21%
24%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | +1 |
| 12 Apr. 1930 |
ASV
2 - 0
NEW
71%
16%
13%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | -1 |
| 09 Apr. 1930 |
BOL
1 - 1
NEW
59%
21%
21%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |