Derby County vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.3%
Win probability
1.8
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.3%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.3%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19%
1-0
13.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.6%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
16.1%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
11.3%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 1920 |
DER
5 - 0
CHL
55%
24%
22%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1920 |
CHL
0 - 0
DER
61%
21%
18%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1920 |
DER
3 - 0
LIV
51%
25%
24%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 05 Apr. 1920 |
DER
2 - 1
EVE
51%
25%
24%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | +1 |
| 03 Apr. 1920 |
LIV
3 - 0
DER
70%
17%
13%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 1920 |
MAC
0 - 0
NEW
67%
20%
14%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1920 |
NEW
3 - 0
MAC
48%
26%
26%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1920 |
ASV
4 - 0
NEW
76%
15%
9%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1920 |
NEW
1 - 1
SHW
57%
23%
20%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1920 |
BUR
1 - 0
NEW
69%
19%
13%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | -1 |