Derby County vs Newcastle analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.2%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
4.6%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.3%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.5%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.1%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
10%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.3%
26.5%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
15.2%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.4%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar. 1913 |
EVE
2 - 2
DER
70%
17%
13%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1913 |
SHE
4 - 1
DER
67%
18%
15%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 1913 |
DER
0 - 1
ASV
39%
24%
37%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1913 |
DER
3 - 3
BOL
58%
21%
21%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1913 |
LIV
2 - 1
DER
68%
18%
15%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Newcastle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 1913 |
NEW
0 - 3
SUN
54%
21%
25%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 1913 |
NEW
0 - 1
BBU
58%
22%
20%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 1913 |
NEW
2 - 2
SUN
56%
20%
23%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1913 |
SUN
0 - 0
NEW
70%
16%
14%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1913 |
NEW
2 - 0
EVE
64%
20%
15%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |