Derby County vs Millwall analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.4%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.9%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.9%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.5%
2-0
11.1%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.1%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
7%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.1%
18.4%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr. 2006 |
REA
5 - 0
DER
65%
21%
14%
|
67 | 80 | 13 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2006 |
DER
2 - 1
CRY
32%
26%
42%
|
66 | 77 | 11 | +1 |
| 18 Mar. 2006 |
LUT
1 - 0
DER
56%
22%
21%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | -1 |
| 11 Mar. 2006 |
DER
3 - 0
BUR
58%
23%
18%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 Mar. 2006 |
WAT
2 - 2
DER
60%
22%
18%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Millwall
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr. 2006 |
MIL
0 - 2
BHA
58%
25%
17%
|
66 | 56 | 10 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2006 |
WAT
0 - 2
MIL
66%
21%
13%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | +1 |
| 18 Mar. 2006 |
MIL
0 - 1
LEI
35%
29%
37%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2006 |
IPS
1 - 1
MIL
66%
20%
14%
|
65 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2006 |
MIL
2 - 1
LUT
35%
27%
38%
|
64 | 68 | 4 | +1 |