Derby County vs Millwall analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.3%
Win probability
1.53
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.7%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.3%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.5%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.3%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
25.6%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
12.2%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.6%
27.1%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
8%
1-2
6.6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
16.7%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.3%
0-3
1.6%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-12%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2003 |
WIM
0 - 2
DER
60%
23%
18%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2003 |
DER
2 - 1
NOR
44%
26%
30%
|
64 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2003 |
SHE
2 - 0
DER
70%
19%
11%
|
64 | 77 | 13 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2003 |
NTT
3 - 0
DER
57%
23%
20%
|
65 | 69 | 4 | -1 |
| 15 Mar. 2003 |
DER
1 - 2
BRA
52%
24%
24%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Millwall
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2003 |
MIL
3 - 1
STO
57%
23%
20%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2003 |
BRA
0 - 1
MIL
49%
25%
27%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | +1 |
| 22 Mar. 2003 |
MIL
3 - 0
SHW
60%
23%
18%
|
67 | 59 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2003 |
MIL
0 - 2
NOR
50%
25%
25%
|
67 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2003 |
WIM
2 - 0
MIL
55%
24%
21%
|
68 | 70 | 2 | -1 |