Derby County vs Millwall analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.7%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.3%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
21.6%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.5%
15.8%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.9%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+9%
+8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 1990 |
COV
1 - 0
DER
61%
24%
16%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1990 |
CHL
1 - 1
DER
62%
23%
15%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1990 |
DER
1 - 3
ARS
31%
28%
40%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 1990 |
CRY
1 - 1
DER
48%
27%
24%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 1990 |
DER
0 - 1
ASV
47%
27%
27%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Millwall
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 1990 |
MIL
1 - 1
MAC
49%
26%
25%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1990 |
MIL
1 - 2
CRY
47%
25%
28%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1990 |
LUT
2 - 1
MIL
64%
21%
15%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 1990 |
MIL
1 - 2
EVE
31%
28%
40%
|
73 | 85 | 12 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 1990 |
NOR
1 - 1
MIL
59%
24%
17%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | 0 |