Derby County vs Middlesbrough analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.3%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.4%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
2.3%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
6.8%
1-0
7%
2-1
6.4%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.6%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
50.3%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
0-1
10.5%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
23.5%
0-2
8.7%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
15.3%
0-3
4.8%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.4%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug. 2024 |
DER
2 - 1
CHE
67%
19%
14%
|
75 | 59 | 16 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
BBU
4 - 2
DER
51%
25%
24%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
DER
2 - 1
VAD
30%
26%
45%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
BAR
4 - 3
DER
40%
24%
35%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
STF
2 - 1
DER
17%
22%
61%
|
75 | 56 | 19 | 0 |
Matches
Middlesbrough
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2024 |
LEE
0 - 3
MID
54%
22%
24%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
MID
1 - 0
SWA
49%
25%
27%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
MID
1 - 0
SCH
47%
24%
29%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
TOW
0 - 0
MID
11%
16%
72%
|
81 | 57 | 24 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
DON
3 - 5
MID
18%
21%
61%
|
81 | 63 | 18 | 0 |