Derby County vs Middlesbrough analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.3%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.7%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.9%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.4%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.2%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
28.7%
Win probability
1.26
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.7%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 1920 |
MID
1 - 0
DER
67%
19%
14%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 1920 |
BOL
1 - 0
DER
70%
17%
12%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 1920 |
DER
0 - 0
BOL
46%
24%
30%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 1920 |
ARS
2 - 0
DER
54%
25%
22%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | -1 |
| 23 Oct. 1920 |
DER
1 - 1
ARS
62%
21%
17%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Middlesbrough
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov. 1920 |
MID
1 - 0
DER
67%
19%
14%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 1920 |
SUN
1 - 2
MID
60%
20%
20%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Nov. 1920 |
MID
2 - 0
SUN
44%
23%
33%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | +1 |
| 30 Oct. 1920 |
BOL
6 - 2
MID
58%
21%
21%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
| 23 Oct. 1920 |
MID
4 - 1
BOL
49%
23%
28%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | +1 |