Derby County vs Middlesbrough analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.1%
Win probability
1.82
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.3%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.9%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
23%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23%
25%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
6.4%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.8%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan. 1920 |
DER
5 - 1
SHE
51%
25%
24%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 1920 |
SUN
2 - 1
DER
72%
16%
12%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Jan. 1920 |
DER
3 - 1
SUN
33%
24%
43%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | +1 |
| 27 Dec. 1919 |
WBA
3 - 0
DER
66%
20%
15%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1919 |
ARS
1 - 0
DER
48%
24%
28%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | -1 |
Matches
Middlesbrough
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan. 1920 |
MAC
1 - 0
MID
60%
21%
20%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 1920 |
PNE
3 - 1
MID
48%
24%
28%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | -1 |
| 03 Jan. 1920 |
MID
4 - 1
PNE
67%
19%
14%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1920 |
MID
4 - 0
BUR
56%
23%
21%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | +1 |
| 27 Dec. 1919 |
BRA
1 - 1
MID
58%
21%
21%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |