Derby County vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
9.7%
Win probability
0.57
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
+3
0.3%
2-0
1.3%
3-1
0.5%
4-2
0.1%
+2
1.8%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
2.5%
3-2
0.5%
4-3
<0%
+1
7.5%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
19.5%
70.8%
Win probability
1.97
Expected goals
0-1
15.6%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.2%
-1
26.1%
0-2
15.3%
1-3
5.7%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
21.9%
0-3
10.1%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
13.2%
0-4
5%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.1%
-4
6.2%
0-5
2%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0%
-5
2.3%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 2008 |
CHL
6 - 1
DER
81%
14%
5%
|
68 | 96 | 28 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2008 |
DER
0 - 0
SUN
36%
27%
37%
|
68 | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2008 |
WIG
2 - 0
DER
62%
23%
16%
|
68 | 79 | 11 | 0 |
| 09 Feb. 2008 |
DER
0 - 3
TOT
19%
25%
57%
|
69 | 89 | 20 | -1 |
| 02 Feb. 2008 |
BIR
1 - 1
DER
61%
23%
16%
|
68 | 80 | 12 | +1 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 2008 |
MUD
0 - 1
OPA
78%
15%
7%
|
96 | 86 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Mar. 2008 |
MUD
1 - 0
LYO
71%
18%
11%
|
96 | 89 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2008 |
FUL
0 - 3
MUD
13%
21%
65%
|
96 | 80 | 16 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2008 |
NEW
1 - 5
MUD
16%
23%
61%
|
96 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2008 |
LYO
1 - 1
MUD
26%
26%
48%
|
96 | 89 | 7 | 0 |