Derby County vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.4%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.8%
2-0
4.4%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.4%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
5.9%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16.7%
27.8%
Draw
0-0
10.4%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
27.8%
46.8%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
14%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.6%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
14%
0-3
4.3%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.7%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 1988 |
OPA
2 - 1
DER
62%
22%
16%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Jan. 1988 |
LUT
1 - 0
DER
74%
17%
9%
|
72 | 85 | 13 | 0 |
| 09 Jan. 1988 |
DER
1 - 3
CHL
42%
24%
34%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | -1 |
| 01 Jan. 1988 |
WIM
2 - 1
DER
69%
19%
12%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | -1 |
| 28 Dec. 1987 |
SHW
2 - 1
DER
70%
19%
12%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb. 1988 |
MUD
1 - 0
COV
66%
21%
13%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 1988 |
MUD
2 - 0
CHL
64%
22%
14%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | +1 |
| 24 Jan. 1988 |
ARS
1 - 2
MUD
48%
27%
25%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 1988 |
OXF
2 - 0
MUD
39%
28%
33%
|
87 | 76 | 11 | -1 |
| 16 Jan. 1988 |
MUD
0 - 2
SOU
63%
22%
15%
|
87 | 81 | 6 | 0 |