Derby County vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.2%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.2%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.6%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.4%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
28%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.4%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec. 1970 |
STO
1 - 0
DER
48%
26%
25%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 1970 |
CRY
0 - 0
DER
43%
27%
31%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 05 Dec. 1970 |
DER
2 - 4
WHU
63%
21%
17%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 1970 |
NTT
2 - 4
DER
45%
27%
28%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Nov. 1970 |
DER
2 - 0
BPO
69%
18%
13%
|
83 | 73 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Dec. 1970 |
ASV
2 - 1
MUD
15%
19%
66%
|
85 | 63 | 22 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 1970 |
MUD
1 - 3
ARS
46%
27%
27%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Dec. 1970 |
MUD
1 - 1
ASV
82%
12%
6%
|
85 | 63 | 22 | 0 |
| 12 Dec. 1970 |
MUD
1 - 4
MAC
54%
25%
21%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | -1 |
| 05 Dec. 1970 |
TOT
2 - 2
MUD
52%
24%
24%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |