Derby County vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.5%
Win probability
1.89
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.1%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
7.5%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.4%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.3%
30.2%
Win probability
1.47
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.4%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.7%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.5%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 1952 |
DER
1 - 1
LIV
62%
19%
19%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 1952 |
BOL
1 - 2
DER
50%
23%
28%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 1952 |
BPO
2 - 1
DER
57%
21%
22%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 1952 |
DER
1 - 2
ARS
57%
21%
22%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 1952 |
MAC
4 - 2
DER
47%
23%
30%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 1952 |
PNE
1 - 2
MUD
41%
24%
35%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 1952 |
MUD
2 - 0
TOT
69%
18%
13%
|
86 | 83 | 3 | +1 |
| 19 Jan. 1952 |
MUD
1 - 1
MAC
75%
15%
10%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 1952 |
STO
0 - 0
MUD
36%
24%
40%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 1951 |
MUD
1 - 0
BOL
71%
16%
13%
|
86 | 80 | 6 | 0 |