Derby County vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
60.7%
Win probability
2.32
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.8%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.4%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.8%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
6%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
20%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.4%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Mar. 1947 |
DER
2 - 1
BRE
67%
18%
15%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1947 |
MID
1 - 0
DER
66%
17%
17%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1947 |
BBU
1 - 1
DER
33%
22%
45%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1947 |
BPO
2 - 1
DER
50%
21%
29%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
| 18 Jan. 1947 |
DER
3 - 0
STO
61%
20%
19%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1947 |
MUD
2 - 1
ASV
58%
21%
21%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1947 |
SUN
1 - 1
MUD
51%
23%
26%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1947 |
MUD
3 - 0
BPO
56%
22%
22%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 1947 |
MUD
1 - 1
STO
55%
22%
24%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 1947 |
ARS
6 - 2
MUD
59%
21%
20%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |