Derby County vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.2%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.5%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.3%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.3%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.9%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
16.4%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
7%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16.4%
13.5%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.8%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 1936 |
SUN
3 - 2
DER
73%
15%
12%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1936 |
WBA
1 - 3
DER
63%
19%
19%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1936 |
BRE
6 - 0
DER
56%
21%
22%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1936 |
DER
4 - 0
SUN
51%
22%
28%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1936 |
GRI
4 - 1
DER
59%
21%
21%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Sep. 1936 |
HUR
3 - 1
MUD
63%
20%
18%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 1936 |
MUD
1 - 1
WOL
46%
23%
31%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 May. 1936 |
HUL
1 - 1
MUD
37%
27%
36%
|
73 | 48 | 25 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 1936 |
BCF
2 - 3
MUD
40%
24%
36%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 1936 |
MUD
2 - 1
BCF
71%
16%
14%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | 0 |