Derby County vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.5%
Win probability
2.6
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.6%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.3%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.4%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
6.8%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.3%
16.3%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
16.3%
13.1%
Win probability
1.05
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.7%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
8.6%
0-2
1.4%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar. 1930 |
BBU
0 - 3
DER
63%
19%
18%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1930 |
DER
3 - 1
MID
67%
17%
16%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1930 |
LIV
2 - 2
DER
57%
22%
21%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 1930 |
DER
4 - 1
ARS
67%
18%
16%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | +1 |
| 08 Feb. 1930 |
OPA
3 - 1
DER
51%
23%
26%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar. 1930 |
ARS
4 - 2
MUD
58%
21%
22%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 1930 |
MUD
2 - 3
ASV
44%
24%
32%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 1930 |
BOL
4 - 1
MUD
61%
21%
19%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Feb. 1930 |
MUD
3 - 0
OPA
52%
24%
25%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 Feb. 1930 |
GRI
2 - 2
MUD
42%
23%
35%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | 0 |