Derby County vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.8%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.9%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
23.5%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 1915 |
DER
2 - 0
PNE
61%
22%
18%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1915 |
BCF
2 - 0
DER
33%
27%
41%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | -1 |
| 10 Apr. 1915 |
DER
1 - 0
BRI
78%
14%
9%
|
77 | 63 | 14 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1915 |
DER
1 - 0
LEI
87%
9%
4%
|
77 | 53 | 24 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1915 |
HUR
0 - 0
DER
37%
26%
37%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 1915 |
MUD
1 - 0
ASV
41%
25%
35%
|
78 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1915 |
CHL
1 - 3
MUD
55%
23%
23%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1915 |
SHE
3 - 1
MUD
58%
22%
20%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1915 |
MUD
2 - 2
MID
50%
24%
26%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1915 |
OLD
1 - 0
MUD
58%
22%
21%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |