Derby County vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.8%
Win probability
2.33
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
0.1%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.1%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.1%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
5%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
5.2%
4-3
1.5%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.8%
19.7%
Draw
0-0
2.2%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.6%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
19.6%
24.5%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
13.5%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
7%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan. 1938 |
BOL
0 - 2
DER
49%
23%
28%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 1938 |
SUN
2 - 0
DER
62%
18%
20%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1938 |
DER
0 - 1
LEI
71%
16%
13%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | -1 |
| 27 Dec. 1937 |
DER
4 - 2
BOL
71%
16%
13%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
| 18 Dec. 1937 |
GRI
0 - 0
DER
56%
20%
24%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan. 1938 |
LEI
1 - 4
MAC
45%
22%
33%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1938 |
MAC
2 - 4
WOL
63%
19%
18%
|
84 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1937 |
BRE
2 - 1
MAC
55%
20%
25%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | -1 |
| 25 Dec. 1937 |
MAC
0 - 2
BRE
66%
18%
17%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 1937 |
LEE
2 - 1
MAC
43%
22%
35%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |