Derby County vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.7%
Win probability
2.39
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.7%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.2%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.8%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.9%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.1%
1-0
6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
6%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
18.8%
19.5%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
5%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 1935 |
STO
0 - 0
DER
46%
23%
31%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 1935 |
DER
1 - 0
BBU
62%
18%
21%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1935 |
SHW
1 - 0
DER
55%
21%
24%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 1935 |
DER
3 - 1
WOL
66%
17%
17%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 1935 |
ASV
0 - 2
DER
65%
17%
18%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 1935 |
MAC
2 - 1
BRE
78%
13%
10%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 1935 |
PNE
4 - 0
MAC
41%
25%
34%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | -1 |
| 12 Oct. 1935 |
BBU
4 - 1
MAC
56%
20%
24%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 1935 |
MAC
1 - 2
STO
68%
17%
16%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Sep. 1935 |
MAC
0 - 0
OPA
68%
17%
16%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |