Derby County vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.9%
Win probability
2.45
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.9%
4-0
3.6%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.5%
3-0
5.8%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.2%
2-0
7.2%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.3%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.3%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.4%
18.4%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
18.4%
18.7%
Win probability
1.29
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.1%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 1932 |
SUN
0 - 2
DER
60%
19%
21%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 1932 |
BBU
3 - 3
DER
63%
18%
19%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1932 |
DER
2 - 2
BIR
66%
18%
16%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1932 |
WBA
2 - 0
DER
55%
21%
24%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | -1 |
| 03 Sep. 1932 |
DER
2 - 0
SHW
55%
20%
25%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep. 1932 |
MAC
5 - 1
BPO
68%
16%
16%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 1932 |
EVE
2 - 1
MAC
71%
15%
14%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Sep. 1932 |
MAC
2 - 3
ARS
49%
22%
29%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | -1 |
| 07 Sep. 1932 |
BIR
3 - 0
MAC
46%
23%
32%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1932 |
MAC
2 - 3
MID
63%
18%
19%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |