Derby County vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.2%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.3%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.7%
2-0
7%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.3%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.6%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.8%
22%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.1%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 1930 |
EVE
4 - 0
DER
52%
22%
26%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 1930 |
DER
2 - 1
BOL
61%
19%
19%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1929 |
SUN
3 - 1
DER
61%
20%
19%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1929 |
DER
3 - 0
LEE
69%
17%
14%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
| 25 Dec. 1929 |
LEE
2 - 1
DER
52%
23%
25%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan. 1930 |
BOL
1 - 2
MAC
54%
22%
25%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 1930 |
MAC
2 - 2
SUN
71%
16%
13%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1930 |
MAC
3 - 3
SHW
64%
18%
18%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 1929 |
BUR
4 - 2
MAC
54%
21%
26%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 1929 |
MAC
1 - 2
ASV
65%
18%
17%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |