Derby County vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.6%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.8%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.1%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.7%
22.7%
Win probability
0.98
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.8%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 1920 |
WBA
3 - 0
DER
69%
18%
12%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1920 |
DER
1 - 1
WBA
42%
27%
32%
|
76 | 85 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1920 |
EVE
3 - 1
DER
70%
18%
13%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 Sep. 1920 |
DER
2 - 4
EVE
54%
24%
23%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1920 |
TOT
2 - 0
DER
59%
22%
19%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Oct. 1920 |
MAC
3 - 1
BOL
52%
22%
26%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1920 |
BOL
3 - 0
MAC
61%
21%
18%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1920 |
MAC
3 - 1
ARS
69%
18%
13%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1920 |
ARS
2 - 1
MAC
48%
27%
26%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 1920 |
ASV
3 - 1
MAC
70%
17%
13%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | -1 |