Derby County vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.8%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.9%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.1%
15.9%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.7%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jan. 1914 |
DER
4 - 0
TOT
64%
20%
16%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1914 |
MID
3 - 2
DER
55%
23%
22%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1913 |
SHE
2 - 2
DER
61%
21%
18%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1913 |
DER
0 - 2
ASV
45%
24%
32%
|
79 | 85 | 6 | -1 |
| 20 Dec. 1913 |
DER
2 - 0
NEW
61%
21%
18%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Jan. 1914 |
MAC
2 - 1
SHE
57%
23%
20%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 1914 |
NEW
0 - 1
MAC
60%
22%
18%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1913 |
MID
2 - 0
MAC
56%
23%
21%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1913 |
MAC
1 - 0
LIV
57%
23%
21%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Dec. 1913 |
LIV
4 - 2
MAC
60%
22%
18%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |