Derby County vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.6%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.4%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.8%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.5%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
37.2%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.9%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
11%
0-3
2.6%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
4.9%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 1906 |
BOL
1 - 0
DER
78%
13%
9%
|
76 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1906 |
DER
2 - 1
BCF
57%
21%
23%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | +1 |
| 03 Sep. 1906 |
DER
2 - 2
MUD
47%
23%
29%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 1906 |
SHE
2 - 0
DER
73%
16%
12%
|
76 | 79 | 3 | -1 |
| 28 Apr. 1906 |
DER
2 - 1
SHW
43%
25%
32%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 1906 |
MAC
2 - 2
BCF
81%
11%
8%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 1906 |
SHW
3 - 1
MAC
56%
22%
23%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Sep. 1906 |
EVE
9 - 1
MAC
61%
20%
19%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | -1 |
| 01 Sep. 1906 |
MAC
1 - 4
ARS
76%
15%
9%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Apr. 1906 |
BIR
3 - 2
MAC
49%
23%
28%
|
85 | 81 | 4 | -1 |