Derby County vs Luton Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
39.9%
Win probability
1.23
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
3.1%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.1%
+3
4.3%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
<0%
+2
11.5%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.5%
28.3%
Draw
0-0
10.1%
1-1
13.2%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
28.3%
31.8%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
10.8%
1-2
7%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
19.5%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
8.7%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-11%
-16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 2021 |
STO
1 - 0
DER
50%
26%
24%
|
67 | 71 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2021 |
DER
2 - 2
BRE
18%
24%
58%
|
67 | 80 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
DER
0 - 1
MIL
38%
28%
33%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2021 |
BAR
0 - 0
DER
56%
24%
20%
|
67 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2021 |
COV
1 - 0
DER
35%
28%
38%
|
68 | 66 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Luton Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 2021 |
PNE
0 - 1
LUT
40%
28%
32%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2021 |
LUT
2 - 0
COV
50%
25%
25%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | +1 |
| 13 Mar. 2021 |
LUT
0 - 1
SWA
27%
25%
47%
|
67 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2021 |
NOR
3 - 0
LUT
67%
21%
13%
|
68 | 78 | 10 | -1 |
| 02 Mar. 2021 |
NTT
0 - 1
LUT
45%
28%
27%
|
67 | 70 | 3 | +1 |