Derby County vs Liverpool analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.5%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
12%
2-0
9%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
8%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.7%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
17.2%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
11%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 1929 |
LEE
1 - 1
DER
50%
23%
28%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 1929 |
DER
3 - 0
EVE
60%
20%
20%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 1929 |
DER
6 - 1
MUD
65%
18%
16%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | +1 |
| 23 Mar. 1929 |
LEI
1 - 0
DER
67%
18%
16%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | -1 |
| 16 Mar. 1929 |
DER
1 - 0
ASV
58%
20%
22%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Liverpool
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr. 1929 |
HUR
1 - 3
LIV
60%
22%
19%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1929 |
LIV
3 - 2
SHW
59%
21%
21%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Apr. 1929 |
CAR
1 - 2
LIV
46%
25%
30%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | +1 |
| 30 Mar. 1929 |
BOL
0 - 0
LIV
62%
20%
18%
|
81 | 83 | 2 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 1929 |
LIV
2 - 0
CAR
66%
19%
16%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |