Derby County vs Leeds United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.9%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
0.9%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3%
2-0
4.5%
3-1
3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
8.4%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
17.3%
24.6%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.6%
45.6%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.1%
0-2
7.4%
1-3
5%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.8%
0-3
4%
1-4
2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
6.4%
0-4
1.6%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.3%
0-5
0.5%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.7%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1996 |
DER
2 - 1
NOR
51%
24%
25%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 1995 |
HUR
0 - 1
DER
48%
25%
27%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 1995 |
DER
3 - 1
SUN
66%
21%
13%
|
67 | 64 | 3 | +1 |
| 16 Dec. 1995 |
MIL
0 - 1
DER
46%
26%
28%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 1995 |
DER
4 - 1
BAR
60%
22%
18%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Leeds United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan. 1996 |
LEE
0 - 0
BBU
50%
25%
25%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 1995 |
EVE
2 - 0
LEE
44%
26%
31%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 1995 |
BOL
0 - 2
LEE
21%
27%
52%
|
84 | 68 | 16 | 0 |
| 24 Dec. 1995 |
LEE
3 - 1
MUD
33%
26%
42%
|
83 | 89 | 6 | +1 |
| 16 Dec. 1995 |
SHW
6 - 2
LEE
45%
26%
29%
|
84 | 80 | 4 | -1 |