Derby County vs Leeds United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.5%
Win probability
2.5
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.4%
5-0
2.3%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3.5%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
7.7%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
4.9%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
13.8%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.8%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.2%
14.3%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
9.3%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Dec. 1929 |
LEE
2 - 1
DER
52%
23%
25%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 1929 |
NEW
2 - 3
DER
61%
20%
19%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 1929 |
DER
5 - 4
GRI
76%
14%
10%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 1929 |
LEI
0 - 0
DER
68%
17%
15%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 1929 |
DER
3 - 1
BIR
64%
18%
17%
|
82 | 79 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Leeds United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Dec. 1929 |
LEE
2 - 1
DER
52%
23%
25%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 1929 |
MUD
3 - 1
LEE
48%
24%
28%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | -1 |
| 14 Dec. 1929 |
LEE
5 - 2
NEW
52%
23%
25%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Dec. 1929 |
BBU
2 - 1
LEE
60%
20%
20%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
| 30 Nov. 1929 |
LEE
1 - 2
MID
52%
22%
26%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |