Derby County vs Fulham analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.2%
Win probability
2.83
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.5%
5-0
3.8%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.6%
4-0
6.8%
5-1
3.2%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
10.7%
3-0
9.6%
4-1
5.7%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.8%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20%
13.4%
Draw
0-0
2.5%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
3.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
13.4%
8.4%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
6%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 1951 |
CHA
3 - 3
DER
52%
22%
26%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1951 |
DER
1 - 0
BUR
72%
16%
12%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1951 |
PNE
0 - 1
DER
50%
22%
27%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | +1 |
| 13 Oct. 1951 |
DER
4 - 2
TOT
62%
19%
19%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1951 |
MUD
2 - 1
DER
69%
17%
14%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Fulham
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov. 1951 |
FUL
1 - 2
MAC
56%
22%
23%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1951 |
ARS
4 - 3
FUL
79%
13%
8%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1951 |
FUL
1 - 2
BPO
43%
24%
33%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 1951 |
LIV
4 - 0
FUL
65%
21%
15%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | -1 |
| 06 Oct. 1951 |
FUL
2 - 3
OPA
42%
24%
34%
|
75 | 85 | 10 | 0 |